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  [推荐]“放开二胎刻不容缓”——专访中国人民大学校长纪宝成       ★★★★★ 【字体:
“放开二胎刻不容缓”——专访中国人民大学校长纪宝成
作者:原作者: …    文章来源:南方周末    点击数:8349    更新时间:2009/4/16 (第教学周)  

我不相信会一放就乱

I don’t believe relaxing the policy will result in disarray

南方周末所以你提出来“提倡生一个,允许生两个,杜绝生三个,奖励不生育”。

Southern Weekly: So is this why you have offered the phrase: “Advocate one, allow two, put an end three, and give incentive to having none?”

纪宝成:我们国家的人口战略发展研究报告开头就说,如果人口总量(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省)峰值控制在15亿人左右,全国总和生育率在未来30年应保持在1.8左右(即平均一对夫妇一生生育1.8个孩子——记者注),过高或过低都不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展。

Ji Baocheng: Research reports on China’s strategic development for population has said from the beginning that if the peak population [not including Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan] is kept around 1.5 billion, the national birth rate over the next thirty years should be maintained at 1.8 [children per couple].  Any higher or lower will be detrimental to the coordinated development of economy and society.

我认为这个判断是正确的,总和生育率应保持在1.8左右。我们这么大一个国家,计划生育是国策,保持低生育水平绝对必要。这一条不能动摇。

I believe this assessment is correct.  The birth rate should be maintained at about 1.8.  With a country as big as ours, family planning as been a national policy and maintaining a low birth rate level is an absolute necessity.  There can be no wavering on this point.

但是现在的情况是,据人民大学人口所的调查,中国农村的生育率是1.9,城市是1.23,平均是1.6,低于1.8,更低于世代更替水平2.1。

However, according to the research done at Renmin University of China the situation has changed.  The average birth rate in the countryside is 1.9 and in the cities it is 1.23.  The national average is 1.6, which is lower than 1.8 and much lower than the level of 2.1 needed to replace the next generation. 

那1.8是一个什么概念?“提倡生一个,允许生两个,杜绝生三个,奖励不生育”,基本上就是1.8。

So what does this 1.8 really mean?  “Advocate one, allow two, put an end to three and  give incentive to having none.”  This is 1.8.

我们的调查,城市人口中,有5%因为种种原因不生育,95%生一胎。在这95%的人当中,根据抽样调查,允许生2胎的话,52%的人有这个意愿。到时候放开了,考虑相互影响的原因,最多也就是80%。这样城市生1.6个,农村可能生到2个,到时候城乡人口可能一半对一半(现在城市人口就超过 45%),平均就是1.8。

Our research shows that, for a variety of reasons, 5% of people in cities do not have children at all.  95% have one.  Among this 95%, 52% of a sample survey said they would be willing to have a second child if allowed.  If the policy was changed and we take into account this effect, at most 80% of people would have a second child.  This would be a birth rate of 1.6 per couple.  People in rural areas will likely have two and when this happens the half of the population will be located in cities and the other half in rural areas [currently 45% live in cities].  The average would then be 1.8. 

事实上,“提倡生一个,允许生两个,杜绝生三个,奖励不生育”,其中的前三句话,就是我们上个世纪70年代曾经执行的政策。那时候有一个通俗的说法:“一个不少,两个正好,三个多了”。只不过后来,“两个正好”被去掉了。

The three sentences at the beginning of this statement I am advocating are actually from a policy that was implemented in the 1970s.  There was a common saying at the time: “One is not many, two’s just right and three’s too much.”  Later on the “two is just right” part was thrown out. 

这个政策当时实施得非常成功。那还是“文化革命”当中的事情,也并没有像80年代那么强制,但也能做到使总和生育率从6降到3左右。就这么八九年的时间降了一半,那是非常了不得的。我当时在湖北宜昌,我感觉基层也没有费太大力气。

At the time this policy was implemented with a lot of success.  It was done during the Cultural Revolution, so there wasn’t as much force like there was in the ‘80s, but it was able to bring the total birth rate down from six to about three, which means it was reduced by half in about eight or nine years.   That’s simply amazing.  At the time I was in Yichang, Hubei and I felt that it didn’t require that much effort at the grass roots level. 

南方周末可能有人担心,放开二胎的话,会不会一放就乱,回到一家生五六个的年代?

Southern Weekly: Some people may worry that if a second child is allowed that disorder will follow, that things will return to the days when families had five or six children each.

纪宝成:可能会有人说我这个人太乐观了。我不相信会回到六十年代初一对夫妇平均生六个孩子的年代。中国现在的年轻人哪里会这么做?偏僻地方的年轻人也不会这么做。市场经济大潮冲击中国的每一个角落,荡涤着人们的灵魂,他不可能不卷入到这样一个进程中来,不可能不受到冲击和影响。

Ji Baocheng:  There are probably some people who would say I’m too optimistic.  I don’t believe the situation will return to what it was at the beginning of the ’60 when each family had an average of six children.  How can young people do this today?  Even young people in remote regions wouldn’t be able to do this.  The market economy has impacted every corner of society, changing the way people think.  People can’t possibly avoid being drawn into this process.  It’s impossible not to be affected by it. 

我可以说,如果我们还是个文盲充斥的国家,放开二胎,可能还真是管不住。但城市化进程和教育普及,已经为放开二胎提供了理性、成熟的社会环境。

I can say that if we were still a largely illiterate society that allowing a second child would probably be difficult to manage.  But urbanization and universal education have already provided a more rational and a mature social environment for allowing a second child.

人口学的研究发现,受教育水平和生育率存在某种负相关关系。日本、韩国都是人口密度很大的国家,他们没有计划生育,但生育率只有1.3左右,靠的是社会经济发展影响到教育水平,影响到观念转变,当然还有社会保障制度。

Research on population studies has shown a negative correlation between education level and birth rate.  Japan and Korea are countries with a very high population density.  They have no family planning policy but the birth rate is only about 1.3.  This is based on the influence of socioeconomic development on education and the way people think.  Of course they also have their social security systems.

国内我们也有实践的经验。像甘肃酒泉、山西翼城、河北承德、湖北恩施都多年实施二孩政策,但仍保持了低生育率。我觉得这种担心是没有必要的。

We also have practical experience domestically with a two child policy.  Think of Jiuquan, Gansu; Yicheng, Shanxi; Chengde, Hebei; and Enshi, Hubei, all of which have implemented this, yet still have maintained low birth rates.  I feel that this concern is unnecessary.

而且,放开二胎,也不是就大撒手了。还要不要计划生育?肯定还要。要不要计生委?我估计还要。计划生育工作的难度并不见得下降很多。工作量还是很大的,要防止反弹,但我认为反弹的可能性不大。

Also, a two child policy does not mean a totally lax approach.  Will we still need family planning?  Of course we will.  Will we still need a Family Planning Commission?  I think it will still be needed.  The difficulty level of family planning work will not necessarily decrease very much and the work load will still be quite large.  We need to prevent a spike [in births], but I don’t think the possibility of this happening is very great.

这个政策的成功与否,关键在于能否杜绝第三胎。难点在这。但是随着城市化进程和高等教育的普及,我不认为这个问题比过去还要难。你想想70年代,大部分时候还在闹文化大革命,不也是一下从6个降到3个左右。

The key to whether or not this policy will be successful is being able to put an end to having a third child.  This is the hard part.  But I don’t think this problem will be as hard to deal with now as in the past because of urbanization and a universally high level of education.  When I think about the ‘70s, most of the time was occupied by the Cultural Revolution, yet the rate fell rather quickly from six to three. 

允许生两个,是符合绝大部分人的愿望的。要生三个,我看是极少数人的愿望。包括农村,他也未必就乐意生3个。我们的计生委,确实还要做很多的工作,但是这个难度不要估计得太大。

Allowing a second child is in line with the wishes of the vast majority of people.  I believe a very small minority wants to have three.  Even in the countryside people won’t necessarily be willing to have a third.  The Family Planning Commission will have to do a lot of work, but I don’t think it will be that difficult.

更重要的是,实施这样的政策,干群关系会更和谐,家庭比较完美,可能婚姻状况更加稳定,孩子的成长会更加健康,教育部门的担子也会轻一点。可能我这个人有一点太过浪漫主义,我总希望,能让我们的计划生育成为一项“甜蜜的事业”(笑)。

What’s more important is through this policy the relationship between the government and the people will be more harmonious.  Family’s will be better.  Marriages will probably be more stable.  Children will grow up healthier.  There will be less of a burden on the shoulders of educational offices.  Perhaps I personally just over romanticize the issue.  I’m always hopeful that we can make our family planning a much “sweeter job.” [laughter]

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